Predicting the Future
Presenter
Don Minges,
CEO,
Numbers Guy CFO, LLC
Overview
We all make predictions in our personal and professional lives. We base our decisions to marry, buy a house, launch a new product or hire staff on expectations about the future. How can we use best practices and current research to improve our ability to predict the future? The course material includes eight group discussions and case studies.
Learning Objectives:
- Examine current best practices in forecasting to help us prepare better budgets and projections.
- Examine budgeting pitfalls and ways to avoid budget traps.
- Discuss the risks that cause actual results to vary from our predictions.
- Discuss methods to deal with both known and unknown risks.
Major Topics:
- Making Predictions
- Why great predictions are not intuitive
- How to separate correlation from causation
- How to recognize and overcome bias
- Who is Thomas Bayes, and why does he matter?
- Becoming a Great Predictor
- Why the ability to doubt helps
- Why it is better to be a fox than a hedgehog
- How nonconformists change the world
- Learn from the past without hindsight bias
- Creating Great Projections and Budgets
- Why the many purposes and types of budgets and projections cause distortions
- How benchmarking and metrics have changed the budget process
- Why Black Swan Risk Matters
- What is Black Swan risk?
- Why the risk you don't know can hurt you
- Protect your company from unknowable risks
