The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s (DOR’s) latest economic forecast update delays the expected period of slow growth to start by mid-2024.
Strong growth in 2023 suggests that tight labor markets may persist until 2024. The recent resilience in spending and employment, persistently strong wage gains and still-elevated core inflation signal the need for tighter financial conditions to slow growth enough to contain inflation.
In the labor market, payroll gains have slowed but are sufficient to keep the labor force fully employed. In July, U.S. payrolls grew by 187,000, while over the six months ending in July, they grew at an average monthly rate of 223,000.
The trend in payroll gains has steadily declined since late 2021, and the forecast update expects the decline to continue pushing the unemployment rate upwards until it peaks at 4.8% in 2026. See the report.