The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s latest economic forecast projects a period of slow growth, starting by late 2024 or 2025, that will help push down inflation.
The last quarter of 2023 showed stronger growth than expected, suggesting that tight labor markets will persist into 2024. The DOR revised its real GDP growth for 2024 to 2.4%, a full percentage point higher than what the department expected in its November 2023 forecast.
The forecast still expects a period of slow growth to bring down inflation to the Fed's desired range, but it will not materialize until late 2024 and 2025.
Employment growth continued to be strong into 2024. Nevertheless, the DOR update predicts GDP growth to fall below trend in 2024 and 2025, bringing the US unemployment rate to a peak of 4.4% in early 2027. See the report.